The World Bank has raised its forecast for economic growth in East Asia and the Pacific in 2026 to 4.5% — 0.3 percentage points higher than it expected in April. At the same time, the bank warned that the region is becoming increasingly dependent on the production and export of artificial intelligence-related goods. CNBC reported this, citing the institution’s new report.
The region includes 23 economies, including China, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. According to the World Bank’s forecast, growth will slow to 4.4% in 2027 and to 4.3% in 2028.
Vietnam received the largest forecast upgrade among the region’s major economies: its expected GDP growth in 2026 was revised upward by 1.1 percentage points to 7.4%.
Artificial intelligence-related goods accounted for more than half of export growth in most of the region’s economies. In Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam, their share exceeded 70%. At the same time, trade growth excluding such goods was weak or negative, the World Bank noted.
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China, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam exported $1.4 trillion worth of AI-related goods in the 12 months through April.
The World Bank pointed to risks in the event of a downturn in global technology spending. Capital expenditures related to artificial intelligence have already reached about 6% of U.S. GDP — a level similar to the peak of investment in information technology in 2000.
Of the $2.9 trillion in AI investment planned for 2025–2028, about $800 billion could come from the private credit market, according to the bank’s estimate. The share of AI-related lending in this segment rose to 34% of activity in 2025, compared with an average of 18% over the previous five years.
The bank stressed that private credit markets are less transparent and have not yet been tested by a serious downturn. It also noted that a one-percentage-point slowdown in U.S. economic growth reduces growth in other developing countries by about 0.6 percentage points. A slowdown concentrated in AI could significantly affect East Asia because of its role in AI supply chains.
