Donald Trump has initiated a significant shift in U.S. foreign policy, prioritizing economic pressure on Iran over a military offensive, a stance largely reflected in his previous warnings about a potential last-minute military strike. The war on Iran, which has been ongoing for over 23 weeks, has been marked by disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, the crucial waterway facilitating global oil trade. While Iran and Oman have stated a near-agreement on Strait management, Trump maintains a ‘semi-negotiating’ approach with the U.S., suggesting a fundamental change from previous comments. After months of extensive fighting, the rationale behind this pivot is complex, stemming from concerns about Iran’s declining economic health – particularly high inflation and the difficulty of funding its military – coupled with a naval blockade since April. Trump’s assessment, delivered in an Axios interview, highlights the goal of hitting Iran economically, citing that Iran is ‘very bad shape’ financially and attributing this to the U.S. naval blockade, which has reduced Iranian oil exports to approximately 1.5 million barrels per day. The blockade, implemented since mid-April, has disrupted Iranian export revenues, adding to existing economic woes linked to domestic structural issues and sanctions. Furthermore, the US military has redirected 53 commercial vessels, including two boarding and two disabling vessels, to the Strait of Hormuz. Trump described this as an ‘unyielding wall of steel’, and Iranian authorities have reported near-zero crude exports due to the blockade. The Pentagon is reportedly seeking rapid production of weapons, including munitions in short supply due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and Ukraine, while the Defense Secretary, Pete Hegseth, cautioned against a shortage of air defense interceptors hindering US forces. The US Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Caine, has indicated that a shortage of air defense interceptors could hamper the US’s ability to protect its forces and allies in the Middle East. Trump began his second term with a promise to avoid ‘stupid wars’, and the war on Iran is currently unpopular in the US, with approval ratings hovering around 35%, a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll showing. The strategy has drawn criticism regarding the cost to Gulf countries and the potential for increased instability in the region. Kamrava, a professor at Georgetown University in Qatar, argues that negotiations between Iran and the US are progressing slowly, casting doubt on whether economic pressure can effectively achieve its goals. He notes that Iran has been able to exert considerable pressure on Gulf countries, attacking them with missiles and drones, to put pressure on the US to negotiate. The US has demanded Iran lift sanctions and the naval blockade, but Iran has offered its own conditions, including the lifting of US sanctions and a reconstruction fund for Iran. The MoU signed in June 17, which reopened the Strait of Hormuz, did not specifically address the US demands regarding Iran’s ballistic missile program or regional proxy groups. The Pentagon has asked the Department of Defense to rapidly escalate the production and delivery of weapons, including munitions in extremely short supply due to the war with Iran, citing a memo from the Defense Department’s Defense Innovation Unit, which indicated the US has enough munitions to sustain its military operations. Trump has indicated that the US has sufficient munitions to continue the war, but this statement is a subject of debate. Trump’s second term has been marked by a shifting goalposts, with the US and Israel frequently adjusting the target of the war since the initial launch in February 2028, when they killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The US initially sought to restrict Iran’s nuclear program, but later dropped this demand, and the US has also stopped supporting Iran-aligned armed groups in the region, including Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthis in Yemen. The US and Iran have repeatedly proposed conditions for ending the war, including lifting US sanctions, the naval blockade, and unfreezing Iranian assets. The US memorandum of understanding (MoU) that Iran and the US signed in June 17 to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and begin a 60-day negotiation period, did not specifically cover the US demands regarding Iran’s ballistic missile program or regional proxy groups. The US has stated that it will continue to focus on the energy crisis caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the war has caused significant economic damage to the US. The war has also caused considerable political tension in the region, with concerns regarding the cost to Gulf countries and the potential for increased instability. Iran has offered its own conditions for ending the war, including lifting US sanctions and the naval blockade, but the negotiations have stalled, and the US has maintained a consistent stance of not allowing Iran to succeed. The war on Iran is considered by many to be a protracted and complex conflict with no clear resolution in sight, and the US and Iran are unlikely to find a lasting peace.”}” ,
Source: Al Jazeera
