The Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) aimed at ending the ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran, scheduled to expire on Monday, has witnessed limited progress, raising concerns about the future of the agreement and its implications for regional stability. The MOU, signed on June 17 by Trump and Pezeshkian, followed rare high-level talks hosted by Pakistan, with the primary objective of halting more than three months of war that has resulted in thousands of deaths and significant disruption to global oil and gas exports. The agreement sought not only to find an immediate diplomatic solution to halt the war with Tehran, but also to resolve conflict in Lebanon. President Donald Trump announced on Friday that the US would soon claim the critically important waterway for itself, a move widely interpreted as a symbolic declaration of intent. The agreement, initially outlining a commitment to a ‘final deal’ to confirm the permanent termination of military operations, included a 60-day extension period, contingent on mutual consent, and stipulated that Iran would clear mines from the Strait of Hormuz and allow ships to pass with no charge for 60 days. However, the US has continued to launch attacks in the region, including on a Panama-flagged cargo vessel, citing violations of Article 1 of the MOU, leading to a significant escalation in tensions. On July 7th, Trump declared the agreement was ‘over,’ and the US continued to conduct attacks, including the killing of at least 50 people, further fueling Iran’s sense of humiliation. Iran, in response, announced the termination of its commitments and suspended all its own, a move that has been met with condemnation from the US. The US has not fully lifted sanctions on Iran, and Trump has scoffed at the idea of paying Iran for reconstruction, instead advocating for compensation for the families of protesters killed over the last 50 years, as well as ‘all the people they have killed and gravely wounded with their roadside bombs and many conflicts.’ Reopening Hormuz has not materialized, with Iranian and US officials continuing to insist that Iran controls the strait. Earlier this week, the Pentagon fired on a Panama-flagged cargo vessel in the strait because it ‘violated the US blockade against Iran.’ This development suggests a renewed emphasis on strategic control of the waterway. Khoshcheshm, a professor at the University of Applied Sciences in Tehran, stated that Iran views the US failure to fulfill its promises of releasing Iranian assets, lifting sanctions, and removing its naval blockade as a significant blow. He added that the US’s lack of leverage in the region has fueled Iran’s frustration, with the agreement’s deadline now appearing to be a matter of time. While the MoU is set to expire on Monday, the exact implications of its demise remain uncertain, with Iran’s Araghchi emphasizing that the agreement was intended to end the war, not a ceasefire. The recent reshuffle in Iran’s national security apparatus indicates a tougher stance, with Iran potentially seeking to end the war in Gaza, to lift sanctions, and to call for the denuclearization of Israel. Slavin, from the Stimson Centre, cautioned that the US is drawing a line, with Trump’s actions suggesting a willingness to apply measures that have never been seen on Iran, and a potential for economic pressure. The US stocks of interceptor missiles have been depleted, its strategic oil reserves drained, and key military hardware, including aircraft carriers, kept at sea months longer than planned, meaning the US has limited military options left to try. Slavin suggested that Iran would likely be reimbursed for the war and gain considerable control over the Strait of Hormuz, with the possibility of a deal after the midterm elections when there will be less of an impact on the vote. Iran’s Parliament Speaker Galibaf confirmed that the concessions Iran won in the MOU were ‘a source of pride and victory’. The US, meanwhile, has escalated rhetoric regarding the Strait and economic warfare, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the US will apply measures that have never been seen on Iran. Slavin concluded that the conflict resolves through a deal, probably after our midterm elections, when there will be less of an impact on the vote.””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””
Source: Al Jazeera
