China’s electric vehicle (EV) market is experiencing unprecedented growth, reaching over 16 million units in 2025, surpassing the world’s largest market by a significant margin. However, this surge is facing a critical challenge: a rapidly expanding wave of batteries nearing the end of their operational lifespan. The annual sales of battery-powered vehicles in China, encompassing fully electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids, have surged from approximately 1 million in 2018 to over 16 million in 2025. This expansion is largely driven by the typical lifespan of lithium-ion batteries – typically eight years – and the anticipated increase in battery waste following their retirement. The projected volume of discarded or reprocessing batteries is expected to grow dramatically in the coming years, posing a major waste-management and recycling challenge for the nation.
This growing problem is not merely an environmental concern; it also presents a significant economic risk. For years, critics of EV adoption have argued that the environmental benefits are overstated. While EVs eliminate tailpipe emissions, the full life-cycle effects of discarded lithium-ion batteries – including risks associated with contamination and potential fire hazards – remain a major concern. Governments, largely prioritizing accelerated EV adoption, have largely bet on recycling systems to eventually catch up. China began developing a formal EV battery recycling system as early as 2018, with over 150 companies now certified to process retired vehicle batteries. By 2023, certified companies had a combined annual processing capacity of 623,000 metric tons, more than 1.5 times the volume of batteries retired that year. Yet, only about 25 percent of these batteries are actually processed, highlighting a substantial gap in recycling efforts.
The investigation published by Yicai in 2024 illustrated this gap. Reporters attempted to contact every company on the white list and found that more than 100 were no longer operating or unable to be reached. In a case announced in Jiangxi Province, an uncertified company was found to have improperly dismantled 364 metric tons of waste lithium iron phosphate batteries. This resulted in contamination, causing vegetation to die across 6 acres of forest and killing more than 420 cubic feet of standing timber. This incident underscored the severity of the problem and the potential for environmental damage.
The recycling industry is struggling to sustain profitability, particularly given China’s leadership in EV adoption. Because of this, Beijing is tasked with managing both the risks and opportunities associated with battery retirement. A major initiative is the formal EV battery recycling system, which began in 2018. More than 150 companies have been placed on the government’s white list, authorizing them to process retired vehicle batteries. In November, a Xiaomi SU7 electric sedan caught fire in Changzhou, Jiangsu Province, and the owner later reported that the battery involved was an aftermarket range extender rather than the vehicle’s original factory-installed battery. This incident highlights the complexities and potential risks associated with informal recycling.
Recycling batteries into raw materials, such as lithium, copper, and nickel, appears to offer a more commercially promising path. Companies can process batteries into ‘black mass,’ a powder containing lithium, cobalt, and nickel. These materials can then be separated, refined, and reused in new batteries. However, this process requires testing and grading, adding to the complexity and cost. Unlicensed operators can skip much of this testing and dismantling packs at far lower costs. Some then sell used cells for aftermarket range-extending battery packs, creating safety risks.
The government’s efforts alone would not solve the problem. Ascend Elements invested heavily in facilities in Georgia and Kentucky and raised more than $1 billion after 2021. But high construction costs, weaker EV demand in the US, and uncertainty surrounding federal support made its expansion difficult. Glencore, a Swiss-based commodity trading company, took over Li-Cycle in April. Glencore did not respond to Inside Climate News’ request for comment. Attempts to reach Ascend Elements and Lithion Technologies were unsuccessful because their listed email addresses and phone numbers were no longer working.
Yan Wang and Sun agreed that China has sufficient certified recycling capacity to manage the coming wave of retired EV batteries. With a vast and rapidly growing supply of used batteries, China has also emerged as the global leader in EV battery recycling. However, unless Beijing can prevent retired batteries from flowing into the informal market, the country risks repeating a familiar pattern: rapid industrial growth followed by a new wave of pollution.”
This story was originally published by Inside Climate News and is reproduced here as part of the Climate Desk collaboration.
Watch Related Video
Source: Wired Science
