Six months ago, the United States and Israel launched their first strikes on Iran, targeting Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and nuclear and military sites around the country. These initial attacks prompted Iran to initiate retaliatory actions, including strikes on US military assets and infrastructure in Gulf countries, and for Hezbollah to fire rockets into northern Israel, triggering near-daily Israeli responses since then, and establishing a degree of control over one-fifth of Lebanon. Neither side has achieved a decisive advantage, with Iran leveraging its control of the Strait of Hormuz to exert pressure on Washington and global energy markets, while the conflict has settled into a stalemate, with negotiations stalled for months.
This protracted conflict has resulted in a significant toll – at least 4,350 confirmed deaths in Lebanon, 3,527 in Iran, and 28 in Gulf states since February 28th. The Pentagon estimates that at least 757 US service members have been wounded, while a further 60 Israelis and 18 US service members have been killed in Iranian attacks. The Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) reports a staggering 3,580 attacks by both sides since February 28, with Iran conducting an equally substantial 2,053 attacks across the Gulf and wider Middle East. Prior to the war, at least 100 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz each day, carrying over half of the world’s oil supply – more than half of them tankers – alongside liquefied petroleum gas and other petrochemicals.
The conflict has dramatically impacted global economics. Figures compiled from national health ministries and official bodies show that an average of seven vessels a day have passed through the Strait of Hormuz since the beginning of the war, with a notable decrease in shipping traffic. The June 17 interim agreement increased the daily average to 20, but only one-fifth of normal traffic, before the US resumed its blockade on July 14 and a return to five vessels per day occurred.
Last month, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated that the war had cost $37.5 billion up to the end of the budget year, including payroll, operations, maintenance, and anticipated costs through September 30. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the government’s emergency stockpile, has fallen to 290 million barrels, about 41 percent of its capacity, representing the lowest level since November 1982. Furthermore, the US pledge was the largest national share of a coordinated release of 400 million barrels agreed on March 11 by the 32 member countries of the International Energy Agency – the largest emergency stock release in its history.
Despite a ceasefire agreement between Lebanon and Israel on April 17 and renewed on June 26, Israeli forces continue to occupy parts of Lebanon and carry out attacks, highlighting the ongoing instability.
Before the ceasefire, Israeli forces occupied nearly one-fifth of Lebanon – approximately 2,000sq km (770sq miles) – with a buffer zone covering roughly six percent of the country remaining in place. The fighting resumed on March 2, following Hezbollah’s attacks that triggered a major Israeli offensive, and the US response resulted in a significant military operation in Lebanon.
Last month, Brent crude rose roughly 22 percent, from $72.48 a barrel to $88.58 on August 28, peaking at $120.88 and reaching a staggering 67 percent higher than pre-war levels, after six months of volatile trading. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has fallen to 290 million barrels, nearly 41 percent of its capacity, and the US pledge was the largest national share of a coordinated release of 400 million barrels agreed on March 11, signaling a significant shift in global energy markets. The US administration has not published a detailed breakdown of the costs, but estimates suggest the total cost could range from $80 billion to $100 billion, including repairs to damaged US bases, replacement of destroyed aircraft, and replenishing weapon stocks. The Reuters/Ipsos poll, which closed on August 24, found that 33 percent of Americans approved of his performance in the White House and 65 percent disapproved, matching the December 2017 low of his first term. The poll found that 80 percent of Americans, including 87 percent of Democrats and 71 percent of Republicans, think US involvement in Iran ‘will go on for an extended period of time.’
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Source: Al Jazeera
