Aston Villa have secured the signing of Nicolas Jackson, a promising striker who will replace Manzambi as Villa’s record-breaking signing, a move that’s mirrored by the departure of Ollie Watkins, who’s looking to join Saudi Pro League side Al-Hilal.
Unai Emery’s Villa are undergoing a significant transformation this summer, with key players including Morgan Rogers, Ezri Konsa, Youri Tielemans, and Lucas Digne already moving on. This leaves a considerable squad disruption, and the arrival of Jackson, a specialist striker, is seen as a crucial element of Emery’s strategy.
Jackson, 25, joins a squad of new additions, including Johan Manzambi, Joao Gomes, Zion Suzuki, and Matteo Ruggeri. The scale of this disruption was evident on the opening weekend when Emery’s side slumped to a 4-0 defeat at Brighton.
With Watkins, 30, unavailable and both Tammy Abraham and 17-year-old Brian Madjo injured, Villa started without a recognised centre-forward – Emiliano Buendia led the line.
Jackson, however, joins a number of new additions, including Johan Manzambi to become Villa’s record signing, from Chelsea, giving Emery a specialist striker to work with.
It looks set to coincide with the end of Watkins’ six-year spell at Villa, during which he scored 108 goals in 278 games and became one of the defining players of the rise under Emery. Watkins recorded 21 goals and five assists in 3,837 minutes, an average of 0.6 per 90.
Jackson’s numbers at Bayern Munich last season compare favourably with those of Watkins at Villa, particularly in terms of shot-creating opportunities.
On the surface, Jackson’s numbers at Bayern last season compared favourably with Watkins at Villa.
Watkins’ playing time was predominantly as a central striker, with 95% of his total minutes spent in the centre of the final third, compared with Watkins’ 43% in the penalty area.
Both players were predominantly used as centre-forwards last season, making the comparison reasonably fair.
Wat Watkins’ involvement was concentrated more heavily around the centre of the final third and penalty area, while Jackson received possession across a wider range of attacking zones.
Opta’s touch maps reinforce the difference. Watkins’ involvement was concentrated more heavily around the centre of the final third and penalty area, while Jackson received possession across a wider range of attacking zones.
Jackson won the ball 2.7 times per 90, compared with Watkins’ 1.8, and completed almost twice as many passes – 24 per 90 to Watkins’ 11.6.
His expected-goals (xG) figure was also higher, at 0.7 per 90 compared with Watkins’ 0.5, while he averaged 8.5 touches in the opposition box to Watkins’ 5.6.
He was considerably more involved in creating and progressing attacks. Jackson averaged 3.8 shots per 90 compared with Watkins's 2.6, and 2.2 shots on target to 1.2.
His expected-goals (xG) figure was also higher, at 0.7 per 90 compared with Watkins’ 0.5, while he averaged 8.5 touches in the opposition box to Watkins’ 5.6.
The two were almost identical for runs in behind, Jackson averaging 13 per 90 and Watkins 12.7, although the Englishman made slightly more runs which finished inside the penalty area.
Watkins also offered more aerially, winning 1.2 aerial duels per 90 compared with Jackson’s 0.7, and carried the ball more directly towards goal.
Jackson’s percentile for possession won in the attacking third was 88th among the Opta striker sample, compared with Watkins’ 43rd.
Villa are not buying an unknown quantity. Emery has coached Jackson before, knows the qualities he wants to develop and would be replacing a 30-year-old striker with a 25-year-old whose underlying numbers suggest there may still be considerable room to improve.
If Jackson joins and Watkins does depart, the Europa League winners will be doing more than just changing their centre-forwards.
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Source: BBC Football
