The situation in Russia is rapidly evolving, with a significant increase in anxieties surrounding potential mobilization, a development fueled by the anxieties of a 26-year-old man grappling with a debilitating illness and a burgeoning sense of unease. Sasha, a resident of Orenburg, has been identified only by his first name to protect his anonymity, and his situation has become a focal point for growing concerns within the Russian military community.
Sasha’s circumstances predate the declaration of partial mobilization in 2022, when he initially considered leaving for Kazakhstan, awaiting the bus. However, a conversation with his girlfriend shortly before this event sparked a deeper apprehension. He’s been experiencing a severe decline in mental health for over a year, characterized by psychiatrists and antidepressants, prompting him to request anonymity to safeguard his well-being.
As Al Jazeera reports, the anxiety has escalated significantly since mid-2025. “Since the beginning of the year, my girlfriend and I have been experiencing a severe decline in mental health. We see psychiatrists and take antidepressants,” Sasha told Al Jazeera, adding that he carries pepper spray as a defense against aggression, a precaution he takes in Penza, a region near the border.
This escalating situation has manifested in several troubling reports. Recent social media footage depicts individuals dressed as civilians attempting to force fighting-age men into vehicles, while women intervene, echoing scenes from Ukraine. Furthermore, there have been instances of men being summoned to police stations under dubious pretexts, subsequently beaten or threatened – often involving illicit drug planting – into signing military contracts. Local authorities deny these reports, asserting that only men attempting to evade the draft are being approached, and accusing residents of spreading disinformation.
The Conscientious Objectors Movement, a prominent group advocating for the rights of individuals seeking to participate in military service without compromising their conscience, has voiced concerns about the increasing pressure on individuals. Oleg Ignatov, a senior Russia analyst at the International Crisis Group, suggests that the recent recruitment incidents are likely isolated, rather than a widespread, systematic effort. He believes the protracted war with Ukraine, coupled with the economic fallout and the degradation of the Russian economy, are demotivating individuals from participating in such risky endeavors.
Russia has already accepted that mobilization will still occur, despite the war in Ukraine, and is currently prepared to replenish its ranks through prisoner enlistment and lucrative contracts. However, this influx of recruits is dwindling, raising concerns about the quality of the military personnel and the potential for a shortage of experienced officers and specialists.
The Kremlin has stated that the mobilization will likely occur this winter, potentially involving increased attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Vladimir Putin has expressed the view that ‘human rights activists are already working on the assumption that mobilization will take place this fall,’ and that the 2022 mobilization decree remains in effect.
This situation is generating considerable international concern. The Washington, DC-based Center for Strategic and International Studies estimates that the number of deaths among Russian forces since the invasion of Ukraine has reached nearly 450,000. The Russian constitution allows for alternative civilian service, but the process is costly and a significant number of applicants are rejected. This is further complicated by the fact that 2,000 people apply for alternative civilian service annually, with approximately half receiving approval.
Sasha’s case highlights a broader trend of anxieties within Russia, fueled by the war in Ukraine, economic hardship, and a sense of disillusionment. The government’s actions, and the potential for further mobilization, are raising serious questions about the stability and long-term prospects for Russia. The ongoing conflict has undeniably impacted the country’s internal dynamics, and the potential for a new major mobilization remains a subject of considerable debate among experts.
Source: Al Jazeera
