The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is facing a monumental challenge: President Felix Tshisekedi is scheduled to leave office in 2028, yet a protracted battle over the rules governing his mandate is reshaping Congolese politics. This conflict, escalating alongside a regional rebellion led by the M23 armed group, is significantly impacting the country’s political landscape, raising serious concerns about the future of constitutional reform and the potential for a protracted power struggle.
In May, Tshisekedi announced his intention to not seek a third term, but would accept it if the Congolese people desired it. This statement revived fears that constitutional reform, which limits presidential terms to five years with a renewable option, could ultimately pave the way for a break from the existing two-term limit. The current constitution, established in 2016, is enshrined in the Constitution of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and it is a cornerstone of Congolese governance.
Under the current constitution, the president is elected for five years, renewable once, while the number and length of presidential terms are protected from constitutional revision. The government, however, argues that the dispute is about institutional reform rather than extending Tshisekedi’s tenure. The Opposition, particularly the Article 64 coalition, which opposes any constitutional shift, has been actively mobilizing against the process, fearing it could be used to alter presidential succession rules.
The confrontation has accelerated in June when the Parliament of the DRC passed legislation establishing conditions for a referendum. The Constitutional Court ruled in July that the law complied with the constitution, but raised concerns about several provisions. On August 10, Tshisekedi formally requested the National Assembly and Senate to reconsider the legislation, with the National Assembly stating a fresh deliberation would be placed on the agenda for its September session. The National Assembly, however, said the fresh deliberation would be placed on the agenda for its September session.
The legislation provides for a constituent assembly followed by a referendum if the state institutions are facing major dysfunction. Critics contend that this mechanism could potentially be used to alter provisions currently preventing Tshisekedi from seeking a third term. The government, meanwhile, has presented constitutional reform as a broader institutional issue, rather than a direct bid to extend Tshisekedi’s time in office. The main opposition group, C64, has been campaigning to resist this, and has announced a nationwide mobilization for September 15, with demonstrations expected in Kinshasa.
With an opposition mobilization planned for September and Tshisekedi preparing to outline an inclusive national dialogue, the confrontation is entering a critical phase. The conflict is unfolding alongside a significant military struggle in eastern Congo, where M23 and the AFC have seized significant territory, including Goma and Bukavu. The Congolese government accuses Rwanda of supporting M23, a charge Kigali denies.
The war is also raising questions about the 2028 elections, which are already fraught with uncertainty due to the ongoing fighting and the government’s posturing over constitutional reform.
Jean-Marc Kabund, a Congolese political analyst, warned that national interests should come before political disputes, stating that this happening while the country is at war could deepen divisions and threaten national cohesion. The constitutional dispute is part of a deeper divide between Kinshasa and the east, and the question remains: how much do ordinary citizens understand about the proposed changes?
Kevin Kalala, a 30-year-old mobile-credit retailer in Kinshasa, stated that he lacks sufficient knowledge of the constitution to form a position. He said, “We do not know what our constitution entails. The Congolese state should start by teaching us about our constitution.” He added that citizens should first be shown which provisions need changing, why they need changing, and what the benefits would be.
The dispute is also being interpreted through a more basic understanding of the proposed changes – whether they will fundamentally alter the country’s political structure.
Bugama, a Congolese political analyst, explained that national interests should take precedence over these political squabbles. He warned that this happening while the country is under the control of an armed group, whilst the government in Kinshasa is posturing over constitutional reform instead of tackling what matters most.
Martin Fayulu, who challenged Tshisekedi in the 2018 presidential election, has called for former President Joseph Kabila and Corneille Nangaa to participate. For now, the constitutional dispute is running alongside the war in the east and the uncertainty over the 2028 elections.
The question is no longer solely about whether the constitution will change. It is about whether Congo’s political forces can agree on the rules for what happens when Tshisekedi’s current mandate ends.
“We are certainly heading towards one of the most decisive periods in our recent history,” Bugama told Al Jazeera. “The country is under the control of an armed group, whilst the government in Kinshasa is posturing over constitutional reform instead of tackling what matters most.”
Tshisekedi has ruled out sitting with people he accuses of siding with Rwanda or the armed rebellion.
Bugama said that the dispute was part of a deeper divide between Kinshasa and the east. He argued that continued Tshisekedi rule could be viewed there as a form of domination and that self-determination should be part of the political debate. The constitutional dispute is running alongside the war in the east and the uncertainty over the 2028 elections.
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Source: Al Jazeera Africa
