The US administration’s escalating threat of ‘economic D-Day’ for Iran, orchestrated by President Trump, tests his relationship with China and signals a dramatic shift in geopolitical strategy. The White House has warned that sanctions targeting Iran’s vital trade partners will be the most extensive campaign in history, potentially triggering a significant backlash from Beijing. This ominous prospect is particularly risky for Washington due to the likelihood of Beijing retaliating with severe economic repercussions, with analysts questioning whether the Trump administration’s measures, slated to be announced on Monday, will match its rhetoric in scope or severity. While the Trump administration has yet to detail the specific nature of these sanctions, US officials have made it clear that Iran’s trade partners are squarely in their sights. In a recent op-ed published in the Financial Times, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent cautioned that countries fearful of economic hardship with Iran would not ‘discount the cost of testing Washington’. Bessent warned that the President’s willingness to target China will be a strong indication of his resolve to mount a sustained economic offensive against Tehran, potentially leading to a prolonged period of pressure. Erickson, a sanctions expert and principal of Obsidian Risk Advisors, stated that the Trump administration’s deliberate targeting of China will be a crucial indicator of its commitment to a sustained economic war. ‘The president has created the conditions to leverage every agency, every authority, and action many assumed we would never summon,’ Erickson explained. ‘This is not a relationship you degrade lightly. If the United States decides to really bring China into the ring, it will be a serious indication that the United States plans to wage this economic war for a prolonged period of time,’ Erickson said. China has vigorously opposed US sanctions against Iran, arguing that economic pressure will not resolve the nearly six-month-long war. In a Sunday statement, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs reiterated its commitment to promoting peace talks and willingness to ‘continue making efforts for the early restoration of peace and tranquility in the region’. Iran has threatened to retaliate against countries that support the US measures. Mohsen Rezaei, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, warned on Saturday that any country that participated in sanctions would be considered an ‘enemy’ and that ‘not a drop’ of oil would leave the Gulf if Iran’s neighbours joined the US campaign. Wang Wen, dean of the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China, cautioned that Beijing would inevitably take countermeasures in response to any US sanctions and that the intensity of these countermeasures would depend on the severity of US actions. ‘China maintains its desire to avoid conflict, but its bottom line cannot be crossed,’ Wang said. While the Trump administration could potentially make it more challenging and expensive for China to continue its economic support of Iran, Erickson expressed doubt that the Trump administration will be able to achieve its war goals through economic pressure alone, stating that US sanctions can absolutely force companies to de-risk in order to avoid exposure, but there will always be an entity willing to fill this role. Erickson added that Xi is unlikely to ‘merely stand by while Trump flexes the powers of American economic statecraft without flexing Beijing’s own in return. Though US officials have stated their intention to ‘collapse’ Iran’s government with ramped-up sanctions, Erickson expressed doubt that the Trump administration will be able to produce the victory that kinetic warfare could not. ‘Unless the Trump administration is willing to burn serious bridges and employ all remaining levers of economic warfare simultaneously, there is no reasonable assertion that can be made that it will be able to produce the victory that kinetic warfare could not,’ he said. The US summit on September 24, between Trump and Xi, is expected to be a critical moment in the relationship, as both sides are likely to be wary of escalating tensions and seeking to avoid a direct confrontation. The strategic implications of this potential escalation are substantial, highlighting the growing risk of a broader conflict in the Persian Gulf region.” , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Source: Al Jazeera
