Fifteen years since the uprising against Muammar Gaddafi in Libya began, and with civil strife leading to the downfall of what was once one of Africa’s wealthiest countries, several actors are actively seeking to end the protracted conflict and reunite the nation. Among them are the United States, Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey, all pushing for a return to ‘One Libya’ – a concept that has been fraught with challenges and varying interpretations. The impetus behind this movement stems from the legacy of Gaddafi’s rule, which lasted four decades and profoundly impacted Libya’s political, economic, and social landscape. The initial outbreak of violence in Benghazi in 2011 ignited a cycle of armed rebellion, escalating into a civil war between the two rival authorities, ultimately fracturing the country into fragmented administrations.
This conflict has been largely overseen by the United Nations Security Council, with a UN-led international military intervention force – comprising NATO members, the United States, United Kingdom, and France – authorized to enforce a no-fly zone and protect civilians. The bombing campaign by NATO, spearheaded by bombing operations targeting Gaddafi’s forces in Benghazi, inadvertently aided the rebels in seizing territory and pushing back Gaddafi’s control. Gaddafi was ultimately captured and killed in October 2011, 42 years after his first seizure of power in a military coup that overthrew King Idris.
Following Gaddafi’s death, a power vacuum emerged, leading to a complex landscape of competing factions and militias vying for control. The UN initiated formal mediation efforts in 2020 under the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), establishing a three-pronged strategy: unifying the two rival administrations, holding presidential and parliamentary elections, and facilitating national dialogue. However, the US, under President Donald Trump’s advisory staff, has intensified these efforts, particularly focusing on leveraging Libya’s substantial oil reserves – a critical element for both the Libyan economy and the global energy market. This strategy hinges on the promise of American investment in Libyan oil fields, a critical point highlighted by Libyan Central Bank data indicating dire economic conditions.
The US appointed Ambassador Richard Norlan as Special Envoy to Libya in May 2021, tasked with facilitating high-level talks between the warring factions. However, the US is currently pushing for a single, unified government, with Dheibah leading the government in Tripoli and Haftar’s forces controlling the oilfields and terminals, a point of contention.
Under Massad Boulous, US President Donald Trump’s African and Middle Eastern affairs adviser, and father-in-law to Tiffany Trump, Washington is intensifying these efforts, aiming to encourage American investment and political incentives to stabilize Libya. The Egyptian government, traditionally supportive of the UN-recognized GNU, has also engaged in mediation, and Qatar has largely backed the UN’s diplomatic efforts through its UNSMIL and UN roadmap for peace.
There are significant opportunities for US energy companies and economic incentives to be aligned with a unified Libya. These include stopping irregular migration from Libya and other North African countries to the EU, and addressing the growing humanitarian crisis. However, the Libyan people themselves are largely absent from the decision-making process. The US-led plan has faced criticism from Libyan analysts and political leaders, with some arguing that it lacks sufficient input from the Libyan people. The deal, some say, could entrench entrenched political dynasties, potentially hindering long-term stability in Libya.
The Egyptian government has also been involved, with President El-Sisi meeting with Khalifa Haftar in Cairo and traveling to both Tripoli and Benghazi to discuss unification.
Last month, Foreign Affairs Minister Hakan Fidan met with Saddam Haftar in Ankara, while Dheibah visited both Tripoli and Benghazi for high-level talks with Haftar. Qatar has largely supported the UN’s mediation efforts, welcoming the unified budget for 2026, a significant milestone after a decade of inactivity.
Experts attribute this renewed focus to the unified budget of 2026, signed in April, representing the first in more than a decade. However, there remains no concrete progress toward a unified government formation. Despite these efforts, there are still no discussions or signs of a unified government forming, indicating a protracted and challenging process.
Turkiye, which deployed troops to support the GNU, has also made efforts to mediate between the two sides and is pushing a ‘One Libya’ policy. Qatar, Egypt, France, Germany and several others have welcomed the unified budget for 2026. A statement issued by Qatar, Egypt, France, Germany and several others called for all parties in Libya to follow the UN roadmap to ‘advance a Libyan-led political process leading to unified governance and national elections.’
Source: Al Jazeera
