The Democratic primaries have dramatically reshaped the political landscape, with a series of victories by left-leaning congressional candidates – from New York to Colorado, and now, Florida – profoundly impacting the midterm campaign. This dynamic raises critical questions about the reach and viability of the progressive movement as Democrats seek to control the House and Senate in November. The surge in success has been particularly evident in the recent elections, as evidenced by the outcomes of several key primaries and the broader trend of insurgent Democrats challenging established power centers.
As Democrats look to capitalize on the president’s low approval rating and the pervasive issues of economic hardship and affordability, they’ve engaged in a fierce battle over distinct visions of the party. While the progressive-left momentum has been prominent in this storyline, there’s growing debate about whether this level of influence is sustainable. David de la Fuente, Deputy Director for Politics and Research at Third Way, a centrist Democratic think tank, notes, ‘The far-left’s ability to defeat three incumbents this cycle is an impressive feat, but in the big scheme of things, it’s turning blue places even bluer.’
Furthermore, the progressive-left has largely focused on deep-blue districts, eschewing substantial investments into races where ‘the Democratic Party has an entire infrastructure to flip purple seats,’ as a spokesperson stated. ‘Our focus is on ensuring that the representatives of the deepest, most Democratic districts actually represent the base of this party and are actually leading this party forward,’ Justice Democrats’ communications director Usamah Andrabi said. ‘Before we go and try and chase every purple voter in this country – which, obviously, we need to win purple voters to flip Congress – we need to win our base back.’
This strategic focus has led to a notable trend: the progressive-left candidates have been winning in the bulk of their races. Approximately two-thirds of House candidates endorsed by two prominent national leftist groups, the Democratic Socialists of America or Justice Democrats, have won their primaries this cycle, according to a CBS News analysis. Three were able to oust incumbents, while five won their primaries for an open seat. Two others advanced to the general election alongside the Democratic incumbent in a top-two primary.
Notably, in Michigan, Democratic socialist Donavan McKinney ousted the incumbent in the 13th District, while in Illinois, Junaid Ahmed and Kat Abughazaleh lost their primaries in the 8th and 9th districts, respectively, and Nida Allam in her race to represent North Carolina’s 4th District. In California’s 11th District, Saikat Chakrabarti, a former chief of staff to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, failed to advance to the general election in the race to replace former House Speaker Pelosi.
Speaking at the National Association of Black Journalists convention in Atlanta last week, Jeffries acknowledged that ‘we are in an important moment of generational change.’ Asked specifically about the DSA candidates on the ballot, Jeffries said, ‘I think we’ll see what happens in terms of what the caucus looks like on the other side of the midterm elections.’
Jeffries added that some have drawn comparisons between the recent energy around leftist candidates and the Tea Party movement in 2010, when insurgent Republicans won a majority of the 63 seats that delivered House control to the GOP. It was much more stylistic than meaningfully changing politics in ways that transferred power from the political establishment to many Americans who were agitated at the time.
De la Fuente compared this year’s wins to the victories of a group of four first-term, progressive Congresswomen, including Ocasio-Cortez — known as ‘The Squad’ — in 2018, during the last two years of President Trump’s first term. ‘You saw Tea Party darlings actually flip districts from blue to red,’ he said. ‘I would be hard-pressed to point to a single Justice Democrat or DSA member who’s going to flip a district from red to blue.’
In the more immediate future, how the leftist Democrats will impact Congress remains to be seen. On the Senate side, a push to oust Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York has found legs among the progressive left.
Jeffries said on NBC News’ ‘Meet the Press’ on Sunday that he doesn’t support the DSA agenda, pointing to planks like defunding the police, open borders and abolishing the Senate. But he acknowledged that should the DSA-backed candidates be elected in November, they’ll be part of the House Democratic caucus.
Jeffries said on NBC News that he doesn’t support the DSA agenda, pointing to planks like defunding the police, open borders and abolishing the Senate. But he acknowledged that should the DSA-backed candidates be elected in November, they’ll be part of the House Democratic caucus.
Jeffries added that he expects people to advance the policies that helped elect our candidates as Democratic socialists.
With increasingly narrow margins in the House in recent years, even a small number of progressive-left lawmakers could tip the scale on important votes, Siddique said. ‘That’s a solid bloc of people who can make the difference on plenty of votes, especially if Democrats do end up with a majority in Congress, or a margin where seven-plus candidates could make the difference,’ Siddique said. ‘That is a lot of leverage.’
Andrabi noted it depends on the margin of the potential Democratic majority. ‘If it’s a margin that looks close to the size of our bloc, then it seems like our bloc will have ample amount of power to dictate or demand more of the Democratic Party,’ Andrabi said. ‘That’s going to be a big deal for the Democrats to have a majority in the House.’
Jeffries said on NBC News that he only expects to see what happens in terms of what the caucus looks like on the other side of the midterm elections.
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Source: CBS News
