Tuesday’s aerial assaults targeting an airbase in northwest Syria have ignited a complex geopolitical landscape, with analysts increasingly interpreting them as a deliberate message from Israel to Damascus and its ally, Turkey. While Israeli officials have refrained from formally confirming the attacks, Syria, the United States, and Jordan have all asserted responsibility for the strikes, which occurred following a period of intensified Syrian rebel activity. The initial strike on Abu al-Duhur, a key airbase in Idlib, was part of a broader pattern of Israeli military activity in the region, including previous targeted strikes on Syrian military bases and infrastructure, dating back to 2024. ‘Bombing an airbase means the Israeli army doesn’t want the new Syria to have any sort of air force in the coming years,’ Kheder Khaddour, a nonresident scholar at the Malcolm H Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center, stated to Al Jazeera, highlighting this strategic imperative. Following the Syrian government’s overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad in late December 2024, Israel swiftly seized strategic positions in the Syrian Golan Heights and illegally occupied the Jabal al-Sheikh area, intensifying its military presence and harassing Syrian citizens. The attacks have been linked to a deliberate effort to impede the potential for a significant Syrian air force rebuilding, a move that has been interpreted by many as a deliberate attempt to curtail Turkey’s influence in Syria. In March 2025, Israel launched two airstrikes on Syrian airbases – T4 in Homs and the Palmyra airbase – previously surveyed by Turkish military delegations. Subsequently, in July 2025, Israel targeted the Ministry of Defence in Damascus, a significant symbolic move signaling a hardening of Israeli policy towards Syria. Israeli officials repeatedly asserted that Syria’s new government represented a threat, even as it has sought closer ties with the West, including the United States. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has warned Syria not to move troops south of Damascus, despite the new administration’s assertion of no confrontation with Israel. Asli Aydintasbas, an associate senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, explained, ‘Syria has not been a threat to Israel, and there have been months of negotiations on a security deal between the two neighbours.’ The Reuters news agency reported that only airstrips and storage facilities were damaged, with no jets destroyed, though Israeli officials stated that the strike was intended to deter Syria from rebuilding its air force, a step taken in response to repairs and training. Samy Akil, a senior adviser with The Syria Report, indicated that the remaining jets in the Syrian air force’s armoury posed little threat, suggesting a pragmatic approach by Israel. Analysts also noted that the strike was likely a deliberate message to Turkey, given Israel’s previous expression of concern and opposition to Turkish influence in Syria, particularly regarding Turkey’s growing military presence. Turkiye, a key backer of some anti-Assad rebel groups throughout the war, continues to maintain a military presence in northern Syria. Akil emphasized that Abu al-Duhur is close to Idlib, a strategic Turkish-influenced area, and that the strike was likely less about destroying an immediate military threat and more about limiting Israeli freedom of operation over Syria’s airspace. Navar Saban, a researcher in security and military affairs at the Arab Center for Contemporary Syrian Studies, likened the attack to Israel’s March 2025 airbase attacks. Reuters reported that Turkish military teams had visited those airbases prior to the March attacks, although neither the Syrian nor Turkish governments confirmed the report. ‘The strike was probably less about destroying an immediate Syrian military threat and more about preventing the creation of a future military capability,’ Saban stated. Netanyahu has reportedly held security consultations over Ankara’s role in Syria, and has repeatedly emphasized the threat posed by Turkey, particularly concerning NATO’s second-largest army. Naftali Bennett, the former Israeli prime minister who is also in the running to replace Netanyahu when Israel goes to the polls in October, has called Turkiye ‘the new Iran’. The Arab Center for Contemporary Syrian Studies found that this attack could be viewed as a deliberate attempt to limit Israel’s ability to operate over Syria’s airspace, given Israel’s concerns about potential reconstruction of Syria’s military infrastructure and the restrictions this could impose on Israeli freedom of action.’” ,]}}”””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””
Source: Al Jazeera
