The United States and Iran have resumed negotiations for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but the process is now fraught with tension, raising serious doubts about a broader peace agreement to end their five-month war. While the US has repeatedly stated its direct involvement in the talks, Iran has maintained a policy of direct communication solely with Oman, with Oman proposing to manage the waterway, which serves as one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies before the US-Israel conflict began in February. This shift in strategy comes amidst escalating rhetoric from Trump, who demanded compensation from Iran for deaths and injuries linked to conflicts and attacks spanning decades, and a subsequent post on Truth Social stating that Iran should compensate families of Iranian protesters killed during antigovernment unrest in January. The US President also stated that Iran should compensate Tehran for damage caused by US and Israeli attacks during this year’s war. Experts, including Al Jazeera’s Tohid Asadi, report that broader peace negotiations between the two countries are unlikely to restart until the issue of the Strait of Hormuz is resolved. ‘The two sides are further apart,’ Asadi stated, ‘They are getting increasingly distant when it comes to the possibility of any diplomatic settlement.’
Trump’s demands, delivered at the White House, included compensation for the deaths and injuries of Iranian citizens through Iranian actions, and a demand for compensation for the families of Iranian protesters killed during antigovernment unrest. He also demanded compensation for the families of Iranian protesters killed during antigovernment unrest in January. Trump’s demands came after Iran said the US should compensate Tehran for damage caused by US and Israeli attacks during this year’s war. The escalatory rhetoric from the US president appeared to conflict with comments from Vice President JD Vance, who stated that Iran had ‘no plans’ to impose tolls on the Strait of Hormuz – a point of significant friction between the two sides.
However, oil prices jumped more than 5 percent on Monday after Trump’s new demands, a trend that accelerated on Tuesday as hopes for a deal faded. Iran says reopening the strait depends on Washington agreeing to a set of new demands, including a specific shipping arrangement in the Strait of Hormuz. Six new conditions announced by Iran’s Supreme National Security Council on Saturday were: At the same time, Tehran said negotiations with Oman over a new shipping arrangement in the Strait of Hormuz, in which they are to define new shipping lanes, have made progress and are in their ‘final stages’, according to Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. On Sunday, Araghchi reiterated the Iranian position that there are no direct talks with the US, but messages are understood to be being exchanged through intermediaries. US-Iran negotiating positions over the Strait of Hormuz appear to be hardening, raising doubts over the prospects for a diplomatic breakthrough for a broader peace deal, according to analyst Negar Mortazavi. Experts said it is unlikely that talks for this larger agreement could restart until the issue of the Strait of Hormuz and how it will be managed is settled.
Mortazavi stated that the latest US stance is particularly sensitive. ‘Trump’s new demands are particularly problematic because they introduce issues that go beyond ending the current conflict,’ she said. ‘If compensation over protests and other past events becomes a genuine US condition for an agreement, rather than simply a negotiating position, it could make a deal extremely difficult for Tehran to accept.’
In turn, Tehran is also seeking significant guarantees, not only for an end to the fighting but also ‘assurances that the conflict will not simply restart, as well as economic relief after the war’. Iran has previously indicated that it has lost trust in US negotiators because the US has commenced attacks three times on Iran while previous talks had been going on. According to Tehran-based political analyst Hossein Royvaran, how the Strait of Hormuz standoff ends will come down to which party has the greatest endurance.
“Right now, America is suffering: in petrol prices, in inflation, in the rising cost of living at home,” Royvaran told Al Jazeera. “There is deep discontent inside America over this war and its consequences for society there. The same is true in Iran, though in Iran there are justifications society finds acceptable: that this war was imposed on Iran and Iran had no choice but to defend itself.”
Source: Al Jazeera
