The situation in western Tigray, a region experiencing a significant escalation of conflict, has reached a critical juncture, marked by escalating clashes between Ethiopian federal forces and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), a region’s regional government. The conflict began on Saturday, November 28th, 2023, with reports of initial assaults originating from Sheraro, a border town near Sudan, according to Tigray’s regional government statement. This marks the most serious breach of the three-year-old peace agreement established in 2022 between Ethiopia and the TPLF, which governed the region for nearly three decades prior to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s ascension to power in 2018. The conflict follows months of strained relations and accusations of failure to implement the agreement’s provisions, a core point of contention for both sides. Abraham Belay, the Tigrayan transitional government leader, confirmed the clashes in a Facebook post, but accused TPLF chairman Debretsion Gebremichael of initiating the hostilities. He asserted that ‘Enough war! Let us resolve our differences through dialogue.’ The Tigrayan authorities stated that Ethiopia’s Prosperity Party has been conducting a prolonged blockade and drone campaign targeting the region, intensifying to a full-scale war. The regional government has called for unity among Tigrayan forces, civil society, and religious institutions to prepare for a struggle defined as a ‘national survival’ endeavor, utilizing the slogan ‘No to National Destruction.’ Getachew Reda, a former TPLF spokesman, separately urged Tigray Defence Forces commanders to abandon Debretsion, accusing him of relying on Eritrea and Amhara’s Fano militia to regain power. Redwan Hussein, Ethiopia’s intelligence chief, signed the Pretoria agreement for the TPLF and the federal government in 2022, signaling a commitment to a ceasefire, but warning that the core reasons for the conflict remain unresolved. The fighting has spurred heightened tensions, with Ethiopian state media launching a campaign portraying Debretsion as a key driver of war sentiment within Tigray. The region has also initiated a series of diplomatic initiatives, including meetings with US Ambassador Ervin Massinga, who expressed concern about the escalating situation. In June, the United States imposed visa restrictions on TPLF hardliners accused of blocking peace negotiations. The TPLF described the situation as based on an ‘incomplete and imbalanced’ picture of the standoff. The fighting caps months of escalating confrontation since the Pretoria Agreement of November 2022, which concluded a protracted war that began two years earlier and resulted in hundreds of thousands of casualties, but left deeper disagreements about disarmament and the TPLF’s legal status. In mid-July, TPLF declared the Pretoria agreement ‘effectively dead,’ even as US Ambassador Ervin Massinga travelled to Mekelle to attempt preservation. Faisal Roble, a regional analyst, stated that the beginning of the fighting was a clear indication that the US’s efforts to resolve the dispute had not been successful. ‘Without a powerful international intervention,’ Roble said, ‘we could be heading to a much larger war.’ The situation continues to unfold with increased military activity in western Tigray, raising concerns about the potential for broader regional instability. The Ethiopian government’s response, including deployment of additional forces, is expected to intensify the conflict, with analysts predicting a potential escalation to a larger-scale conflict.
Source: Al Jazeera
