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The IFP has emerged as a highly effective coalition player in the municipalities covered by the Mistra Coalitions Barometer, taking the mayoralty in every administration where it was the largest party.
The report describes the IFP as “the regional specialist” and says most of its participation in local coalitions since 2021 was concentrated in KwaZulu-Natal.
“The IFP held seats in 31 of the 80 municipalities in the dataset, 24 of them in KwaZulu-Natal, where it held seats in every hung council,” the report says.
It held seats in 70 administrations and was a member of government in 40.
“However, the IFP got good value from the seats it held,” the report says.
“Measured by time in office, it sat in government for half of the days on which it held seats in a hung council.”
“Moreover, in municipalities where it was strong, the IFP almost always led. It took the mayoralty in every one of the 30 administrations in which it was the largest member.”
The report says the IFP “led 30 of the 40 (75%) administrations it belonged to, and every one of those 30 was a government it anchored”.
Its 30 IFP-led administrations governed for 17,775 days.
Often, these smaller parties are the decisive actors in determining which of the larger parties’ coalitions are able to govern and survive.
The party’s most common governing partners were the EFF, with 5,516 shared days, the DA with 5,027 and ActionSA with 4,000.
The DA also supported 14 of the 30 IFP-led governments from outside the coalitions across nine municipalities.
“This is by far the largest member-supporter relationship in the Coalitions Barometer dataset,” the report says.
EFF: influence without executive leadership
The report describes the EFF as having “a very wide presence, combined with a paradoxical lack of executive leadership”.
It held seats in 135 administrations — more than any party except the ANC and DA — but led only two.
“The combination of wide presence without executive leadership was the EFF’s defining structural feature,” the report says.
When the EFF entered government, it “generally had to do so as a junior partner in another party’s coalition, rather than leading it”.
The ANC was the EFF’s largest partner, with 12,638 shared days.
MK’s coalition strategy remains unknown
The report describes the MK Party as “the unknown quantity” in municipal coalition politics.
By the data cut-off, MK had councillors in only three administrations — uMzumbe, Thabazimbi and Mandeni — all through by-elections, and was coded as opposition in all three.
“This record does not provide enough data to make reasonable inferences about the MK Party’s preferred coalition partners, its willingness to enter government or its broader political strategy,” Mistra says.
The report says there were 103 different parties holding at least one seat in the dataset. Of these, 64 became coalition members and 14 anchored a government.
“South African local politics is heavily shaped by the country’s many local parties, residents’ associations, one-councillor formations and so on.
“Often, these smaller parties are the decisive actors in determining which of the larger parties’ coalitions are able to govern and survive.”
