Telecommunications tower. Credit: African Development Bank.
Sixth-generation mobile technology is expected to reach about 2.4 billion connections globally by 2035, as telcos prepare for a new cycle of network investment while 5G continues to account for the majority of mobile connections, according to GSMA Intelligence.
Operators will spend the remainder of the 2020s expanding 5G coverage, deploying 5G Standalone and introducing 5G-Advanced capabilities, with 6G building on many of the architectural and technological changes already taking place across mobile networks.
The latest forecast, which extends the research firm’s mobile technology outlook to 2035, estimates that 6G will have about 50 million connections by the end of 2030, representing only 0.5 per cent of the global mobile connections base. Adoption is expected to accelerate thereafter, reaching about 275 million connections in 2031 and nearly 740 million in 2032.
“The number of 6G connections is forecast to exceed one billion in 2033, reaching about 1.3 billion before rising to 1.9 billion in 2034 and 2.4 billion in 2035,” the forecast indicated.
This development comes as Nigeria’s mobile market remains dominated by older network technologies, with 4G accounting for 54.31 per cent of subscribers in July 2026, while 5G’s share stood at 4.74 per cent, according to the Nigerian Communications Commission. 2G accounted for 36.54 per cent and 3G for 4.42 per cent.
The projections highlight the gradual transition to the next generation of mobile networks. Rather than telcos replacing 5G immediately, 6G is expected to coexist with existing technologies throughout much of the first half of the 2030s.
By the end of 2035, 5G is forecast to account for about 60 per cent of global mobile connections, compared with 23 per cent for 6G and 17 per cent for 4G, GSMA Intelligence said.
The International Telecommunication Union established IMT-2030, the 6G framework, in 2023. Work on the technology has since advanced, with draft technical performance requirements agreed upon in February 2026.
The requirements cover six usage scenarios, including the evolution of existing mobile capabilities as well as newer applications involving ubiquitous connectivity, artificial intelligence and communications, and integrated sensing and communications.
GSMA Intelligence expects the earliest 6G adoption to be concentrated in advanced mobile markets in East Asia, North America and parts of Europe. These markets have high levels of 5G adoption, established device ecosystems and growing demand for network capacity, providing conditions for an earlier transition.
China is expected to be particularly significant because of the size of its mobile market, with more than half of its connections forecast to use 6G by 2035. Other leading mobile markets are also expected to reach adoption rates of around half by the middle of the next decade.
At a regional level, about half of mobile connections in North America are projected to use 6G by the end of 2035, with East Asia also among the leaders. Europe is expected to follow, with about one-quarter of connections migrating to 6G.
Adoption will be considerably slower in several emerging markets. GSMA Intelligence forecasts that 6G penetration will remain below 10 per cent in a number of emerging-market regions by 2035, partly because operators will still be expanding 5G coverage and adoption.
The slower transition means the first half of the 2030s is likely to be characterised by the coexistence of several generations of mobile technology rather than a wholesale replacement of 5G.
Network capacity will nevertheless come under increasing pressure as mobile data consumption rises. GSMA Intelligence forecasts that global mobile network traffic will more than quadruple from about 144 exabytes per month in 2025 to 604 exabytes per month in 2035.
The research firm expects annual traffic growth of about 15 per cent over the period, driven not only by video but also by artificial intelligence, extended reality and 5G fixed wireless access.
AI-enabled devices, cameras, sensors and extended-reality applications could also alter the pattern of network demand as devices increasingly generate and transmit content rather than simply consume it, increasing requirements for uplink capacity, latency and reliability.
The GSMA estimates that countries with high population densities could require 2 to 2.5GHz of mid-band spectrum between 2035 and 2040 to meet demand, compared with about 1GHz currently identified for mobile use in most countries.
The organisation’s analysis points to a potential additional requirement of 1 to 2GHz of mid-band spectrum, alongside improvements in spectral efficiency and greater network densification.
Justice has over three years experience spanning digital and print media. At The PUNCH, he currently covers the automobile sector with special interest in features and industry analysis.
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