The World Bank has retained its 2026 economic growth projection for Ghana at 4.8 per cent, citing resilient economic activity, rapid disinflation, and significant progress in the country's debt restructuring. The report also points to a marked improvement in investor confidence.
In its October 2026 Africa Economic Update: Building AI-Readiness report, the Bank projects real GDP growth to edge up to 4.9 per cent in 2027 and 5.0 per cent in 2028. This follows growth of 5.8 per cent in 2024 and 6.0 per cent in 2025. Although the 2026 figure is a moderation from the previous two years, the Bank says the recovery remains firm, supported by strong domestic demand and expanding digital services.
The economy expanded by 6.0 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, compared with 6.6 per cent in the same period of 2025. The Bank says the expansion was driven largely by domestic demand, with investment surging by 53.0 per cent.
The services sector, which grew by 8.0 per cent, accounted for nearly three-fifths of overall GDP growth. Information and communications technology activity grew by 30.9 per cent. Industry strengthened to 4.3 per cent from 2.4 per cent a year earlier, helped by higher oil and gas output. Agriculture slowed to 3.9 per cent from 7.1 per cent, largely because of a sharp contraction in fishing.
Private sector sentiment also improved. Ghana's S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 50.8 in August from 49.2 in July. A reading above 50 signals expansion, and the Bank links it to stronger customer demand and increased hiring.
Consumer price inflation is projected to fall from 22.9 per cent in 2024 and 14.2 per cent in 2025 to 8.0 per cent in 2026, and to stay around that level through 2028. Even so, the Bank of Ghana has kept its policy rate at 14 per cent, taking a cautious stance because of risks from global energy prices.
Debt restructuring and investor confidence
The World Bank describes the debt restructuring as a major milestone in the recovery. Public debt fell from 70.1 per cent of GDP at the end of 2024 to 48.8 per cent at the end of 2025, before rising slightly to an estimated 52.6 per cent in 2026. The fiscal deficit is projected to narrow to 2.2 per cent of GDP in 2026.
During the 2026 Article IV consultation, Ghana was reclassified to moderate risk on both its external and overall debt. The Bank calls this a significant improvement and describes Ghana as the first country since the 2022 debt distress wave to exit the high-risk category altogether.
The completion of the SADEREA debt exchange in July 2026, together with continued fiscal consolidation under the International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme, has helped lift investor confidence. Ghana's sovereign spreads fell sharply from about 2,828 basis points in 2023 to 239 basis points by August 2026. The Bank attributes this to the completed restructuring, sustained fiscal adjustment, and the move to moderate risk.
Narrower spreads generally mean investors demand less extra return for lending to Ghana, which typically lowers the cost of borrowing.
Source: 3News
