Ethiopia is currently experiencing a renewed period of heightened conflict, with its armed forces asserting restraint while simultaneously expressing fears of a potential civil war, a situation that has intensified following recent military developments. The Ethiopian federal military, led by Field Marshal Berhanu Jula, has stated that it is responding to provocations originating from the Tigray front with ‘wisdom and restraint,’ a position that has been met with criticism from Eritrea, which has been accused of funding and supporting armed groups to weaken Ethiopia. Eritrea, wary of landlocked Ethiopia seeking to invade it to gain access to the Red Sea, has denied these accusations. The fighting, which initially began in Tigray, has rapidly expanded into neighboring Afar and Amhara regions, with reports of military operations in areas like Abala and Soqota. The Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival, a coalition of armed groups, has declared a commitment to removing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government, and the military has reported a significant increase in casualties, particularly among Tigrayan fighters, with estimates suggesting 272 combatants and 260 wounded in a counter-offensive. The TPLF, a Tigrayan rebel group, has reported a ‘full-scale war’ involving infantry, mechanized units, and drones. The TPLF’s central committee member, Adisalem Balema, stated that the situation has reached a critical point, with the federal government’s strategy of ‘strategic calm’ proving insufficient. Internet access has been significantly cut across northern Ethiopia, raising concerns about potential drone attacks, a day after the UN issued a warning about this. The renewed fighting has placed severe strain on the 2022 Pretoria Agreement, which ended a brutal two-year civil war in Tigray, and has raised fears of a wider regional conflict potentially involving armed groups from across Ethiopia. Addressing the UN General Assembly, Ethiopia’s President Hasem Elgait, attempted to portray the country as a force for regional stability, accusing unnamed external actors of meddling in Ethiopia’s affairs while highlighting Addis Ababa’s role in supporting peace efforts in neighboring Sudan. Professor Alemayehu Weldemariam, a law expert at Indiana University, argued that the federal government bears considerable blame for the collapse of the Pretoria Agreement, asserting that the cessation of hostilities provisions were largely sabotaged by the federal government itself, citing fuel, service, and cash restrictions imposed on Tigray, and the government’s failure to establish an interim administration. He further stated that what was intended as an interim arrangement has become a permanent state, excluding Tigray from national elections since. The situation is complicated by the fact that the agreement was intended to provide for a more equitable distribution of power, and this has been undermined by the federal government’s actions.”” ,
Source: Al Jazeera Africa
