The US and Iran have reached a temporary agreement on the terms of a 60-day negotiation to end the war in the region, but significant hurdles remain, raising concerns about the potential for further escalation and a protracted stalemate. The agreement, finalized on Monday, marks a significant, albeit tentative, step towards a potential final deal, but the path forward remains fraught with challenges.
Following the agreement, US President Donald Trump announced plans to cut back joint military exercises with South Korea, citing concerns about the country’s lack of assistance with the Iran war and his relationship with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. The joint exercises in South Korea began as scheduled on Monday, according to South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff.
Trump’s comments also involved a meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel, where he raised the Iran war and his request for South Korea to help. Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law and US envoy, met with Hamas leader Khalil al-Hayya in Egypt as mediators seek to revive Trump’s Gaza peace initiative, which Israel has rejected. The goals which the Trump administration previously laid out included complete Iranian surrender, regime change, Iran never getting a nuclear weapon and ending Tehran’s support for its Middle East proxy groups like Hezbollah.
Tehran’s chief negotiator and parliament speaker said the United States and Israel have “failed to achieve” any of the objectives they set at the start of their war with Iran.
Ghalibaf claimed Iran has emerged victorious, with a recent report from the Iranian government stating that the nation has been able to successfully defend itself from multiple attacks by the Houthi rebels in Yemen, which has caused a dramatic shift in the balance of power in the region.
Kushner, serving as Chief Middle East negotiator in Trump’s first term, has previously advised administration officials on negotiations with Arab leaders, including Trump administration officials and people close to Kushner, and has informally advised on negotiations with leaders in the region. Kushner helped lead Trump administration policies on the Middle East, including the Abraham Accords, which normalized ties between Israel and several Arab states. He has previously denied these investments are a conflict of interest. After leaving the White House, Kushner launched a private equity firm, Affinity Partners, which received $2 billion from Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund. The United Arab Emirates and Qatar have also invested large amounts into his firm.
Kushner and Mladenov, the leader of Hamas, held talks in Egypt on Sunday, according to a source familiar with the matter, as part of efforts to advance the Gaza ceasefire plan rejected by Israel. The talks in El Alamein included Board of Peace director Nickolay Mladenov. Kushner is expected to meet with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel on Monday, and has already sat down this week with Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi.
It all comes at a critical time for US diplomacy in a region that’s been roiled by conflicts on multiple fronts this year. The goal of the agreement is to ensure that the Gulf countries continue to send oil and gas to the world economy so that we have energy price stability. It is not the administration’s old goals – and the order Vance placed them in – striking, although the agreement does show a shift in priorities.
The agreement has led to increased scrutiny of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, as increased tanker traffic, with satellite trackers off, has provided the US with detailed data on the volume of oil moving through the waterway. The number of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz varies from a couple to about a dozen on a daily basis. In the past 24 hours, 13 vessels transited, with four of those inbound and nine outbound. Windward, a maritime intelligence group, reported that the number of ships is low, and the number of ships that are shipping oil through the Strait of Hormuz is likely to increase. The US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said that between 8 and 9 million barrels a day were getting through Hormuz on a running average. Wright said the US had access to information that tracking agencies lacked.
The number of ships known to be transiting the Strait of Hormuz varies from a couple to about a dozen on a daily basis. Not all are tankers; many operators are still deterred from using the strait because of sporadic Iranian drone attacks.
Read the full analysis of US objectives in the Strait of Hormuz here.
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Source: CNN
