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Former Clinton advisor and pollster Mark Penn breaks down the latest election polling data, analyzing shifting voter sentiment, key demographic trends and critical economic concerns shaping the electorate.
Michigan voters have concerns about both candidates in the U.S. Senate race and that leads to a tight contest, according to a new Fox News poll.
Democrat Abdul El-Sayed has a slim 1-point edge against Republican Mike Rogers, 50-49%, among Michigan likely voters. The survey, released on Wednesday, is the first Fox News Poll this season among likely voters, so a direct comparison can’t be made to previous polls.
Yet among registered voters, the preference is almost identical, 51% El-Sayed vs. 48% Rogers. That’s a reversal since August, when Rogers was ahead by 4 points among registered voters, 51% to El-Sayed’s 47%.
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The analysis below is among likely voters, unless otherwise noted.
More of El-Sayed’s backers feel certain of their choice (87%) than Rogers’ (80%). Overall, 15% say they could switch their pick before voting, including 18% of Rogers’ supporters and 12% of El-Sayed’s.
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Here’s why the race is tight.
Roughly equal numbers of Michiganders say they are extremely concerned Rogers is too close to President Donald Trump (39%) as say El-Sayed’s views are too liberal (36%).
And their favorable ratings are also close: 47% view El-Sayed positively compared to 44% for Rogers. Among registered voters, positive views of El-Sayed increased by 5 points since August while Rogers’ declined by four points.
El-Sayed’s best groups include those who traditionally go Democratic: women, Black voters and those with a college degree. He’s also ahead with voters under age 45 and the small subgroup of union households.
The groups giving Rogers some of his strongest support include men, rural voters, White evangelical Christians, married voters and Whites without a college degree.
Both candidates receive near-universal backing from their party. Rogers receives 95% among Republicans, while it’s 93% for El-Sayed among Democrats. In addition, Rogers gets 99% of MAGA Republicans and 88% of non-MAGA Republicans, while El-Sayed garners 98% of DSA Democrats and 90% of non-DSA Democrats. The small number of independents narrowly favor El-Sayed.
This year’s political landscape favors El-Sayed. The Democrats hold a 5-point advantage when voters are asked which party they want to control the Senate, 52% to 47%. But to capitalize on that, he’ll need to consolidate Democratic support after a contentious primary because 11% of likely voters who backed his primary opponent Haley Stevens say they plan to vote for Rogers.
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"The Michigan Senate race is unique in that short-term political forces favoring the Democrats are somewhat offset by concerns about the Democratic candidate," says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts the Fox News Poll with Democrat Chris Anderson.
"The bad news for Rogers is El-Sayed has made progress shoring up Democratic support and has room to grow given voter concerns about the economy."
Four in ten Michiganders say they are falling behind financially, and they back El-Sayed by 25 points. But the largest share, nearly half, describe their family as holding steady, and they favor Rogers by 13 points, while the small number who are getting ahead prefer Rogers by 36 points.
Still, for 7 in 10 voters, the cost of living will be extremely important to their Senate vote, and they back El-Sayed by 13 points. He also has advantages among the 4 in 10 focused on U.S. policy toward Israel (+8 points) and AI technology (+17 points). Conversely, Rogers is favored by 26 points among the 44% focused on immigration.
Half of Michigan voters consider Trump extremely important to their Senate vote, and they favor El-Sayed by 22 points.
In 2024, Trump won Michigan by less than two percentage points, while Rogers lost to Democrat Elissa Slotkin by less than half a point.
Voter frustration with the administration is a drag on Rogers, as nearly 6 in 10 disapprove of the president’s performance. While 40% approve, not all support Rogers (93%). He remains competitive with support from 19% of Trump disapprovers overall, even as 28% who only "somewhat" disapprove of Trump prefer El-Sayed.
In the gubernatorial race to replace term-limited Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Democrat Jocelyn Benson leads Republican John James 54% to 45% among likely voters.
Twelve percent of those backing Rogers in the Senate race cross-party lines to favor Benson.
Conducted September 24-28, 2026, under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with a sample of 1,203 Michigan registered voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (114) and cellphones (794) or completed the survey online after receiving a text message (295). Results based on the registered voter sample have a margin of sampling error of ±2.5 percentage points and for the subsample of 1,028 likely voters it is ±3 percentage points.
Sampling error for results among subgroups is higher. In addition to sampling error, question wording and order can influence results. Sources for developing weight targets include the most recent American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis and voter file data. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education and area variables to ensure the demographics of respondents are representative of the registered voter population. Likely voters are based on a probabilistic statistical model that relies on past vote history, interest in the current election, intention to vote, age, education, race, ethnicity and marital status. Results among subgroups are only shown when the sample size is at least N=100.
Fox News’ Victoria Balara contributed to this report.
As head of the polling unit, Dana Blanton runs the Fox News Poll and oversees the Fox News Voter Analysis election survey.
Source: FOX News
